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Acknowledgements * Foreword by Butterfly Conservation Europe * Context and objectives of a climatic risk atlas of European butterflies * A. CLIMATE CHANGE, BIODIVERSITY, BUTTERFLIES, AND RISK ASSESSMENT * A.1 Introduction: Butterflies as indicators * A.2 Scenarios and biodiversity * A.3 Climate change and Biodiversity Risk Assessment for butterflies * B. METHODOLOGY * B.1 The MEB project data as basis for the atlas * B.2 Scenarios used to assess climate change risks for European Butterflies * B.3 Climate niche modelling * Climatic factors of butterfly distribution * Modelling procedure * Assumptions for species dispersal * Visualisation of the multi*dimensional climatic niche * B.4 Climate change risk assessment for butterflies * Definitions of climate change risk categories for European butterflies * Integrated overall risk categories for European species - integrating all scenarios and time steps * C. CLIMATE RISKS OF EUROPEAN BUTTERFLY SPECIES * C.1 Species inventory and taxonomy of European butterflies * C.2 Climatic fate of individual species * Hesperiidae * Papilionidae * Pieridae * Lycaenidae * Riodinidae * Libytheidae * Nymphalidae * Danaidae * C.3 Non*modelled European butterfly species * C.4 Summary results * D. DISCUSSION OF METHODOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS * D.1 Limitations of species distribution models and future projections * D.2 Interaction of taxonomic status and modelling results * E. OUTLOOK: CLIMATE CHANGE AND BUTTERFLY CONSERVATION * E.1 Direct and indirect climate change impacts on butterflies and biodiversity * Habitats and trophic interactions * Climate envelopes for European butterflies as a starting point for future research and conservation * Climate change and evolution * Biodiversity Risk Assessment * E.2 Butterflies as indicators of environmental change * Butterfly indicator developments * Butterflies as climate change indicators * E.3 Climate change and butterfl y conservation * F. APPENDICES, REFERENCES AND INDEX * Appendix 1: Table on parameters for model suitability assessment * Appendix 2: Table on scenario results: Changes in climatic niches * Appendix 3: Risk category statistics * References * Species index