280 pages, 6 plates with colour illustrations; b/w illustrations, tables
Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas.
New to this edition:
- Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area
- New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts
- Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings
- Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts
- Includes new Appendix on Verification Software
Reviews of first edition:
"This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems."
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004
" [...] a good mixture of theory and practical applications [...] well organized and clearly written [...] "
- Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005
List of Contributors xi
Preface to the First Edition xv
1 Introduction 1
2 Basic concepts 11
3 Deterministic forecasts of binary events 31
4 Deterministic forecasts of multi-category events 61
5 Deterministic forecasts of continuous variables 77
6 Forecasts of spatial fields 95
7 Probability forecasts 119
8 Ensemble forecasts 141
9 Economic value and skill 167
10 Deterministic forecasts of extreme events and warnings 185
11 Seasonal and longer-range forecasts 203
12 Epilogue: new directions in forecast verification 221
Appendix: Verification Software 231
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