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This book presents the results of a study of long-term perspectives for energy development of the world and its main regions, performed at the Siberian Energy Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Energy Systems Institute since 1998). The methodological approach, the 10-regional Global Energy Model (GEM-10R) of the world energy system, energy demand forecasts, data on energy resources and energy technologies, and results of calculations based on mathematical models are described. Particular attention is given to determination of energy requirements and peculiarities of its technological structure that are caused by mankind's necessary transition to sustainable development. Economic and ecological consequences of constraints on greenhouse gas emissions and scales of nuclear energy production, as well as assistance of developed countries to developing ones are investigated. Problems of cheap oil, gas and uranium resources depletion, fuel price growth, synthetic fuel production and new energy technology implementation are analysed.
Preface * Part I: Methodology of Studies and External Conditions of Energy Development in the 21st Century. 1. World Energy: State of the Art and Trends in Development. 2. Methodology of Studies * 3. Energy Demand. 4. Energy Resources. 5. Technologies of Energy Conversion and Final Consumption * Part II: Study on Problems and Tendencies of Energy Development in the 21st Century. 6. Global Scenarios of External Conditions for Energy Development. 7. Changes in the World Energy Structure. 8. Tendencies in Energy Development of World Regions and in Interregional Ties. 9. Analysis of Conditions and Requirements of Sustainable Development. 10. Directions and Priorities of Technological Progress in Energy * Conclusion * References * Acronyms * Index.
