Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies

About this book

The Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies provides recent and modelled (2050, 2080) distribution maps, a photo and data on biology and ecology for each species, and a general chapter on methods of mapping and modelling.

The overarching aim of the atlas is to communicate the potential risks of climatic change to the future of European butterflies. The main objectives are to: (1) provide a visual aid to discussions on climate change risks and impacts on biodiversity and thus contribute to risk communication as a core element of risk assessment; (2) present crucial data on a large group of species which could help to prioritise conservation efforts in the face of climatic change; (3) reach a broader audience through the combination of new scientific results with photographs of all treated species and some straight forward information about the species and their ecology.

The results of this atlas show that climate change is likely to have a profound effect on European butterflies.Ways to mitigate some of the negative impacts are to (1) maintain large populations in diverse habitats; (2) encourage mobility across the landscape; (3) reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses; (4) allow maximum time for species adaptation; (4) conduct further research on climate change and its impacts on biodiversity.

The book is a result of long-term research of a large international team of scientists, working at research institutes and non-governmental organizations, many within the framework of projects funded by the European Commission. It is published as Special Issue 1 of BioRisk, a new open-access journal of biodiversity and environmental sciences. It addresses conservationists working in research and/or policy making, ecologists, climatologists, biogeographers, entomologists, and members of the public society who care about the worrying trends in changes to the world's climate and nature.

Contents

Acknowledgements * Foreword by Butterfly Conservation Europe * Context and objectives of a climatic risk atlas of European butterflies * A. CLIMATE CHANGE, BIODIVERSITY, BUTTERFLIES, AND RISK ASSESSMENT * A.1 Introduction: Butterflies as indicators * A.2 Scenarios and biodiversity * A.3 Climate change and Biodiversity Risk Assessment for butterflies * B. METHODOLOGY * B.1 The MEB project data as basis for the atlas * B.2 Scenarios used to assess climate change risks for European Butterflies * B.3 Climate niche modelling * Climatic factors of butterfly distribution * Modelling procedure * Assumptions for species dispersal * Visualisation of the multi*dimensional climatic niche * B.4 Climate change risk assessment for butterflies * Definitions of climate change risk categories for European butterflies * Integrated overall risk categories for European species - integrating all scenarios and time steps * C. CLIMATE RISKS OF EUROPEAN BUTTERFLY SPECIES * C.1 Species inventory and taxonomy of European butterflies * C.2 Climatic fate of individual species * Hesperiidae * Papilionidae * Pieridae * Lycaenidae * Riodinidae * Libytheidae * Nymphalidae * Danaidae * C.3 Non*modelled European butterfly species * C.4 Summary results * D. DISCUSSION OF METHODOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS * D.1 Limitations of species distribution models and future projections * D.2 Interaction of taxonomic status and modelling results * E. OUTLOOK: CLIMATE CHANGE AND BUTTERFLY CONSERVATION * E.1 Direct and indirect climate change impacts on butterflies and biodiversity * Habitats and trophic interactions * Climate envelopes for European butterflies as a starting point for future research and conservation * Climate change and evolution * Biodiversity Risk Assessment * E.2 Butterflies as indicators of environmental change * Butterfly indicator developments * Butterflies as climate change indicators * E.3 Climate change and butterfl y conservation * F. APPENDICES, REFERENCES AND INDEX * Appendix 1: Table on parameters for model suitability assessment * Appendix 2: Table on scenario results: Changes in climatic niches * Appendix 3: Risk category statistics * References * Species index

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