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Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events

Emphasises the predictability of extreme events, providing useful background information to help policymakers and managers plan for climate extremes and shorter-term forecasts of severe weather events
Provides a context for future research in the field of high-impact weather and climate extremes by compiling a wide variety of diagnostic and dynamical tools
Presents a less technical explanation of the dynamical processes involved in extreme weather events, making it accessible to a wider audience

Series: Special Publications of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics Volume: 2

By: Jianping Li (Editor), Richard Swinbank (Editor), Richard Grotjahn (Editor), Hans Volkert (Editor)

370 pages, 51 colour & 210 b/w illustrations, 18 tables

Cambridge University Press

Hardback | Mar 2016 | #224222 | ISBN-13: 9781107071421
Availability: Usually dispatched within 6 days Details
NHBS Price: £89.99 $109/€100 approx

About this book

Based largely on an International Commission on Dynamical Meteorology (ICDM) workshop, this timely volume, written by leading researchers in the field, covers a range of important research issues related to high-impact weather and extreme climate events. Dynamical linkages between these extremes and various atmospheric and ocean phenomena are examined, including Atlantic Multidecadal, North Atlantic, and Madden–Julian Oscillations; Annular Modes; tropical cyclones; and Asian monsoons. Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events also examines the predictability of high-impact weather and extreme climate events on multiple time scales. Highlighting recent research and new advances in the field, Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events enhances understanding of dynamical and physical processes associated with these events to help managers and policy makers make informed decisions to manage risk and prevent or mitigate disasters. It also provides guidance on future research directions in atmospheric science, meteorology, climate science, and weather forecasting, for experts and young scientists.


List of contributors

Part I. Diagnostics and Prediction of High-Impact Weather
1. Global prediction of high-impact weather: diagnosis and performance Mark Rodwell and Alan Thorpe
2. Severe weather diagnosis from the perspective of generalized slantwise vorticity development Guoxiong Wu, Yongjun Zheng and Yimin Liu
3. Probabilistic extreme event attribution Pardeep Pall, Michael Wehner and Dáithí Stone
4. Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes Xuebin Zhang and Francis Zwiers

Part II. High-Impact Weather in Mid-Latitudes
5. Rossby wave breaking: climatology, interaction with low-frequency climate variability, and links to extreme weather events Olivia Martius and Gwendal Rivière
6. The influence of jet stream regime on extreme weather events Nili Harnik, Chaim Garfinkel and Orli Lachmy
7. Forecasting high-impact weather using ensemble prediction systems Richard Swinbank, Petra Friederichs and Sabrina Wahl
8. Storm tracks, blocking and climate change: a review Tim Woollings
9. The North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations: climate variability, extremes and stratosphere troposphere interaction Adam A. Scaife

Part III. Tropical Cyclones
10. Opportunities and challenges in dynamical and predictability studies of tropical cyclone events Russell L. Elsberry and Hsiao-Chung Tsai
11. Predictability of severe weather and tropical cyclones at the mesoscales Fuqing Zhang, Christopher Melhauser, Dandan Tao, Y. Qiang Sun, Erin B. Munsell, Yonghui Weng and Jason A. Sippel
12. Dynamics, predictability, and high-impact weather associated with the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones Patrick Harr and Heather M. Archambault
13. Secondary eyewall formation in tropical cyclones Chun-Chieh Wu, Yi-Hsuan Huang and Zhe-Min Tan
14. Seasonal forecasting of floods and tropical cyclones Tom Beer and Oscar Alves

Part IV. Heat-Waves and Cold-Air Outbreaks
15. European heat waves: the effect of soil moisture, vegetation and land use Fabio D'Andrea, Philippe Drobinski and Marc Stéfanon
16. Western North American extreme heat, associated large scale synoptic-dynamics, and performance by a climate model Richard Grotjahn
17. Decadel to interdecadel variations of Northern China heatwave frequency: impact of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover Zhiwei Wu and Jianping Li
18. Global warming targets and heatwave risk Robin Clark
19. Cold-air outbreaks over East Asia associated with blocking highs: mechanisms and their interaction with the polar stratosphere Hisashi Nakamura, Kazuaki Nishii, Lin Wang, Yvan J. Orsolini and Koutarou Takaya

Part V. Ocean Connections
20. Response of the Atlantic Ocean circulation to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations Henk A. Dijkstra
21. Key role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in twentieth-century drought and wet periods over the US Great Plains and the Sahel Sumant Nigam and Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas
22. Floods and droughts along the Guinea Coast in connection with the South Atlantic Dipole Hyacinth C. Nnamchi and Jianping Li
23. The effect of global dynamical factors on the interannual variability of land-based rainfall Peter G. Baines and Benjamin J. Henley
24. MJO and extreme weather and climate events Chidong Zhang

Part VI. Asian Monsoons
25. Extreme weather and seasonal events during the Indian summer monsoon and prospects of improvement in their prediction skill under India's monsoon mission D. R. Sikka
26. Interannual variability and predictability of summer climate over the Northwest Pacific and East Asia Shang-Ping Xie and Yu Kosaka
27. Impacts of Annular Modes on extreme climate events over the East Asian monsoon region Jianping Li


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