Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment Modeling and Decision Support

About this book

Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include:

- Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included
- Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty
- Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes
- Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences

Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists.

Contents

Chapter 1. An Introduction to Uncertainty in Natural Hazards

Section 1. Uncertainty, Communication, and Decision Support
Chapter 2. Natural Hazard Modeling & Uncertainty Analysis
Chapter 3: Understanding uncertainty as a key interdisciplinary problem in Earth system science
Chapter 4. Uncertainty and Probability in Wildfire Management Decision Support: An Example from the United States
Chapter 5. Role of uncertainty in decision support for volcanic ash modeling

Section 2: Geological Hazards
Chapter 6. Building an uncertainty modeling framework for real-time VATD
Chapter 7. Uncertainties in estimating magma source parameters from InSAR observation
Chapter 8. Improving model simulations of volcanic emission clouds and assessing model uncertainties
Chapter 9. Uncertainty assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents at Mt Vesuvius (Italy) simulated through the Energy Cone Model
Chapter 10. Earthquake loss estimation in the Gyeongju area, southeastern Korea, using a site classification map
Chapter 11. Implications of different digital elevation models and preprocessing techniques to delineate debris flow inundation hazard zones in El Salvador
Chapter 12. Evaluating the performance of FLO2D code in lahar simulations at the most active Mexican volcanoes: Popocatépetl and Volcán de Colima

Section 3. Biophysical and climatic hazards. Editor-in-Chief: Karin Riley
Chapter 13. An Uncertainty Analysis of Wildfire Modeling
Chapter 14. Fire and Smoke Remote Sensing and Modeling Uncertainties: Case studies in Northern sub-Saharan Africa
Chapter 15. Uncertainty and complexity tradeoffs when integrating fire spread with hydro-ecological projections
Chapter 16. Uncertainty quantification and propagation for projections of extremes in monthly area burned under climate change: A case study in the coastal plain of Georgia, USA
Chapter 17. Simulating vegetation change, carbon cycling and fire over the western US using CMIP5 climate projections
Chapter 18. Sensitivity of vegetation fires to climate, vegetation and anthropogenic drivers in the HESFIRE model: consequences for fire modeling and projection uncertainties
Chapter 19. Uncertainties in predicting debris flow hazards following wildfire
Chapter 20. Capturing spatio-temporal variation in wildfires for improving postwildfire debris flow hazard assessments
Chapter 21. Uncertainty in estimation of debris flow triggering rainfall: Evaluation and impact on identification of threshold relationships
Chapter 22. Prospects in Landslide Prediction: Confronting the Challenges of Precipitation Uncertainty

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