Extreme Events Observations, Modeling, and Economics

About this book

Extreme Events covers the fundamentals and the consequences of extreme geophysical phenomena like asteroid impacts, climatic change, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, flooding, and space weather. Extreme Events also addresses their associated, local and worldwide socio-economic impacts. The understanding and modeling of these phenomena is critical to the development of timely worldwide strategies for the prediction of natural and anthropogenic extreme events, in order to mitigate their adverse consequences.

Extreme Events is unique in as much as it is dedicated to recent theoretical, numerical and empirical developments that aim to improve:

(i) the understanding, modeling and prediction of extreme events in the geosciences, and, (ii) the quantitative evaluation of their economic consequences. The emphasis is on coupled, integrative assessment of the physical phenomena and their socio-economic impacts.

With its overarching theme, Extreme EventsObservations, Modeling and Economics will be relevant to and become an important tool for researchers and practitioners in the fields of hazard and risk analysis in general, as well as to those with a special interest in climate change, atmospheric and oceanic sciences, seismo-tectonics, hydrology, and space weather.
 

Contents

Contributors vii
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
1 Introduction
      Mario Chavez, Michael Ghil, and Jaime Urrutia ]Fucugauchi 1

Part I: Fundamentals and Theory 7
2 Applications of Extreme Value Theory to Environmental Data Analysis
      Gwladys Toulemonde, Pierre Ribereau, and Philippe Naveau 9
3 Dynamical Systems Approach to Extreme Events
      Catherine Nicolis and Gregoire Nicolis 23
4 Skill of Data-based Predictions versus Dynamical Models: A Case Study on Extreme Temperature Anomalies
      Stefan Siegert, Jochen Bröcker, and Holger Kantz 35
5 Detecting and Anticipating Climate Tipping Points
      Timothy M Lenton and Valerie N Livina 51
6 Understanding ENSO Variability and Its Extrema: A Delay Differential Equation Approach
      Michael Ghil and Ilya Zaliapin 63

Part II: Extreme Events in Earth’s Space Environment 79
7 Drivers of Extreme Space Weather Events: Fast Coronal Mass Ejections
      Alexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, and Stilian Stoev 81
8 Chicxulub Asteroid Impact: An Extreme Event at the Cretaceous/Paleogene Boundary
      Jaime Urrutia-Fucugauchi and Ligia Pérez-Cruz 93

Part III: Climate and Weather Extremes 113
9 Weather and Climatic Drivers of Extreme Flooding Events over the Midwest of the United States
      Andrew W Robertson, Yochanan Kushnir, Upmanu Lall, and Jennifer Nakamura 115
10 Analysis of the Hazards and Vulnerability of the Cancun Beach System: The Case of Hurricane Wilma
      Edgar Mendoza, Rodolfo Silva, Cecilia Enriquez-Ortiz, Ismael Mariño-Tapia, and Angélica Felix 125
11 Observations and Modeling of Environmental and Human Damage Caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
      Kazuhisa Goto, Fumihiko Imamura, Shunichi Koshimura, and Hideaki Yanagisawa 137
12 Extreme Capillary Wave Events Under Parametric Excitation
      Michael G Shats, Hua Xia, and Horst Punzmann 153

Part IV: Extreme Events in the Solid Earth 163
13 A Review of Great Magnitude Earthquakes and Associated Tsunamis along the Guerrero, Mexico Pacific Coast: A Multiproxy Approach
      María-Teresa Ramírez-Herrera, Néstor Corona, and Gerardo Suárez 165
14 Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy and Its Geographical and Temporal Variations
      Paola Salvati, Mauro Rossi, Cinzia Bianchi, and Fausto Guzzetti 177
15 An Extreme Event Approach to Volcanic Hazard Assessment
      Servando De la Cruz-Reyna and Ana Teresa Mendoza-Rosas 195

Part V: Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Events 205
16 Economic Impact of Extreme Events: An Approach Based on Extreme Value Theory
      Richard W Katz 207
17 Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and Their Direct Economic Impacts: A Hybrid Approach
      Mario Chavez, Eduardo Cabrera, Silvia Garcia, Erik Chavez, Mike Ashworth, Narciso Perea, and Alejandro Salazar 219
18 Tropical Cyclones: From the Influence of Climate to Their Socioeconomic Impacts
      Suzana J Camargo and Solomon M Hsiang 303
19 Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy
      Andreas Groth, Patrice Dumas, Michael Ghil, and Stéphane Hallegatte 343

Part VI: Prediction and Preparedness 361
20 Extreme Tsunami Events in the Mediterranean and Its Impact on the Algerian Coasts
      Lubna A Amir, Walter Dudley, and Brian G McAdoo 363
21 High-Tech Risks: The 2011 Tôhoku Extreme Events
      Heriberta Castaños and Cinna Lomnitz 381
22 On Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events: Pattern Recognition Approach; Prediction Algorithms; Applications to Disaster Preparedness
      Vladimir Keilis-Borok, Alexandre Soloviev, and Andrei Gabrielov 391

Index 407

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