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Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications


Series: Geophysical Monograph Series Volume: 180

By: Eric T DeWeaver (Editor), Cecilia M Bitz (Editor), L Bruno Tremblay (Editor)

269 pages, illustrations

American Geophysical Union

Hardback | Jan 2008 | #231536 | ISBN-13: 9780875904450
Availability: Usually dispatched within 5 days Details
NHBS Price: £90.95 $111/€102 approx

About this book

Arctic Sea Ice Decline addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include:
- An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline;
- A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments;
- A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act;
- Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations;
- A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction.

Arctic Sea Ice Decline will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.


      Eric T. DeWeaver, Cecilia M. Bitz, and L.-Bruno Tremblay vii
Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Introduction
      Eric T. DeWeaver 1

Section I: Arctic Sea Ice in the Instrumented and Paleo–Proxy Records
Recent Trends in Arctic Sea Ice and the Evolving Role of Atmospheric Circulation Forcing, 1979-2007
      Clara Deser and Haiyan Teng 7
Reconstructing Sea Ice Conditions in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic Prior to Human Observations
      Anne de Vernal, Claude Hillaire-Marcel, Sandrine Solignac, Taoufik Radi, and André Rochon 27

Section II: Factors in Sea Ice Sensitivity
Arctic Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing From Observations and Their Role in Sea Ice Decline Predicted by the NCAR CCSM3 Model During the 21st Century
      Irina V. Gorodetskaya and L.-Bruno Tremblay 47
Some Aspects of Uncertainty in Predicting Sea Ice Thinning
      Cecilia M. Bitz 63
Sensitivity of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness to Intermodel Variations in the Surface Energy Budget
      Eric T. DeWeaver, Elizabeth C. Hunke, and Marika M. Holland 77
The Atmospheric Response to Realistic Reduced Summer Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies
      Uma S. Bhatt, Michael A. Alexander, Clara Deser, John E. Walsh, Jack S. Miller, Michael S. Timlin, James Scott, and Robert A. Tomas 91

Section III: Rapid Loss Versus Abrupt Transition
Sea Ice-Albedo Feedback and Nonlinear Arctic Climate Change
      Michael Winton 111
The Role of Natural Versus Forced Change in Future Rapid Summer Arctic Ice Loss
      Marika M. Holland, Cecilia M. Bitz, L.-Bruno Tremblay, and David A. Bailey 133
Multiple Equilibria and Abrupt Transitions in Arctic Summer Sea Ice Extent
      William J. Merryfield, Marika M. Holland, and Adam H. Monahan 151
What Is the Trajectory of Arctic Sea Ice?
      Harry L. Stern, Ronald W. Lindsay, Cecilia M. Bitz, and Paul Hezel 175
Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies in a Coupled Model Control Simulation
      Richard I. Cullather and L.-Bruno Tremblay 187

Section IV: The Threat to Polar Bears From Sea Ice Decline
A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears
      Steven C. Amstrup, Bruce G. Marcot, and David C. Douglas 213

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