Books  Sustainable Development  Economics, Business & Industry  Environmental Economics 

Projecting Environmental Trends from Economic Forecasts: A Procedural Case Study

Out of Print

Series: Studies in Green Research Series

By: Peter B Meyer and Thomas S Lyons

Ashgate Publishing Limited

Hardback | Aug 2000 | #84476 | ISBN: 1840141948
Out of Print Details

About this book

Sustainable development offers visions of the future, but implementation of new sustainable policies seems slow. This text presents a forecasting method directed to overcome some barriers to the implementation of more sustainable economic policy. Using a case study, the authors describe how economic and environmental forecasts can be developed that are relevant to the immediate concerns of policy-makers and are more likely to lead to policy changes. A combination of forecasting methods are shown to evaluate a range of current alternatives in the future. Similar techniques have been used in developing countries, but here the techniques are applied to an already industrialized economy.


Contents

Part 1 Forecasting for sustainability: projecting the shadow of humanity on the environment of the Earth; the why and how of forecasting alternative futures; is there a tradeoff between economy and the environment?; economic development paths and their ecological impacts; our project - forecasting Kentucky's environmental futures. Part 2 Process overview and rationale: the policy context - opportunities and constraints; task definition - opportunities and constraints; identifying key areas of concern; data scanning; project modelling elements; establishing the economy-environment links; identifying the politically and technologically possible alternative development paths. Part 3 Scanning context and setting priorities: Kentucky - a brief socioeconomic sketch; the state of the environment in Kentucky; the policy context; setting priorities - the initial issue scanning survey. Part 4 Social research for forecasting - nomial group techniques in scenario building: scenario forecasting; the nominal group technique; identification of significant environmental issues; developing scenarios - social, economic and environmental narratives; summary of findings. Part 5 Environmental impact modelling from scenario projections: forecasting economic conditions and activities; the Kentucky regions analyzed - definitions and utility; baseline and restructured projections - imagining a different mix of economic activities; POLESTAR scenarios - technology, policy and behaviour change and the environment. Part 6 Comparing the effects of economic activity, technologies and practices on environmental impacts: the baseline economy projection - can past trends continue?; adjusting for probable and possible change; the environmental consequences of economic restructuring; the range of change - baseline status quo versus restructured combined change; finding implications for current policy - sources of challenge, sources of hope. Part 7 Forecasting for sustainability - conclusions, findings and potential: forecasting for sustainability; forecasting Kentucky's environmental futures - a summary; environmental research for the policy process - context and credibility; issues in measurement and valuation; prospects - the potential contribution of environmental forecasts. Appendices: current trends in Kentucky; major sources for assumptions about possible changes; sources of Kentucky data.

Write a review

There are currently no reviews for this product. Be the first to review this product!

Bestsellers in this subject

Economic Incentives for Marine and Coastal Conservation

NHBS Special Offer Price: £24.50 £31.99 (Save £7.49) $31/€28 approx (ends 31/03/2017)

Natural Capital

NHBS Price: £12.99 $16/€15 approx

What Has Nature Ever Done for Us?

NHBS Price: £9.99 $12/€12 approx

Nature's Wealth

NHBS Price: £40.99 $51/€47 approx

A Field Guide to Economics for Conservationists

NHBS Price: £26.99 $34/€31 approx

VAT: GB 407 4846 44
NHBS Ltd is registered in England and Wales: 1875194