296 pages, Figs, tabs, maps
Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century informs readers of conceivable environmental changes in the next hundred years. Integrated scenarios are used to communicate large amounts of information about different aspects of the global environmental system, together with society's role within this system. Uniquely, the scenarios are generated by an integrated computer model, IMAGE 2.1, which enhances consistency and provides a framework for linking environmental and social aspects of global change. Divided into four parts, the volume begins by describing the model used to generate these scenarios, explaining its current features. This is followed by scenarios of changing climate, energy and food use, land cover, acidification, sea level and many other indicators of global change up to 2100. The long term consequences of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are then explored in a section which uses the concepts of 'safe landing' and 'safe emission corridors' to address the connection between the long-term climate protection and short-term emission reductions. The final section examines how the complicated and crucial issue of how complex global scenario information can be communicated to policy makers.
Paul D. Raskin ...The book provides a good example of the advances made in recent years in synthesizing diverse types of information into a coherent modeling system. At the same time, it reveals the methodological limits of contemporary global modeling. Climatic Change
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