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Evaluates the current understanding of the linkages among climate, ecosystems, and infectious disease and outlines the research needed to improve the understanding of these linkages. It also examines the potential for using climate forecasts and ecological observations to help predict infectious disease outbreaks, identifies the necessary components for an epidemic early warning system, and reviews lessons learned from the use of climate forecasts in other realms of human activity.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION CLIMATE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: THE PAST AS PROLOGUE Origins of Environmental Medicine The Early Merger of Meteorology and Medicine Meteorology Becomes and Independent Discipline Medical Environmentalism Without Meteorology Twentieth Century Teleconnections LINKAGES BETWEEN CLIMATE, ECOSYSTEMS, AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE Weather and Climate: Background Concepts Infectious Disease Dynamics: Background Concepts Weather/Climate Influences on Infectious Diseases: An Overview Other Factors that Affect Infectious Disease Dynamics CLIMATE INFLUENCES ON SPECIFIC DISEASES Dengue Malaria St. Louis Encephalitis Rift Valley Fever Hantavirus Lyme Influenza Cryptosporidium Cholera and other Vibrios ANALYTICAL APPROACHES FOR STUDYING CLIMATE DISEASE LINKAGES Observational and Experimental Studies Mathematical Modeling Risk Assessment Frameworks Integrated Assessment Surveillance/Observational Data Needs TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SCALING: AN ECOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE Biological Effects of Observed Climate Variability Confounding Influences on Ecological Forecasting TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISEASE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS Developing Effective Early Warning Systems Examples of the Use of Climate Forecasts KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ACRONYMS/ABBREVIATIONS GLOSSARY REFERENCES APPENDIX A: BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS APPENDIX B: SPEAKERS/PRESENTATIONS AT THE COMMITTEE MEETINGS INDEX
Committee on Climate, Ecosystems, Infectious Diseases, and Human Health, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council