250 pages, Tabs, figs
A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective
From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill."
Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules-craftily laid out in the book-that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science.
...all modern university students...lawyers, politicians, scientists and journalists...would benefit...from reading it...Oh, and fuzzy set theorists. (Short Book Reviews, December 2006) "...a fascinating book with a very broad scope; its arguments are presented clearly and it is easy to read." (Significance, June 2007) "...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty." (Journal of Applied Statistics, 2007)
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