World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030 An FAO Perspective

About this book

This report is FAO's latest assessment of the long-term outlook for the world's food supplies, nutrition and agriculture. It presents the projections and the main messages. The projections cover supply and demand.

Contents

Prospects for food and nutrition: The broad picture - historical developments and present situation; The outlook for food and nutrition to 2015 and 2030; Structural changes in the commodity composition of food consumption; Concluding remarks. Prospects for aggregate agriculture and major commodity groups: Aggregare agriculture - historical trends and prospects; Cereals; Livestock commodities; Oilcrops, vegetable oils and products; Roots, tubers and plantains; Main export commodities of the developing countries. Crop production and natural resource use: Introduction; Sources of growth in crop production; Agricultural land; Irrigation and water use; Land-yield combinations for major crops; Input use. Livestock production: Introduction; Consumption of livestock products; Production; Major perspective issues and possible policy responses; Concluding remarks. Forestry: Introduction; The present state of forests; Forces shaping forestry and areas of change; Probable changes up to 2015 and 2030; Major perspective issues in world forestry; Where is forestry heading? Fisheries: Introduction; World fisheries at the end of the 1990s; Plausible developments in world fisheries; Concluding remarks. Agriculture in poverty alleviation and economic development: Introduction; Internationally agreed poverty reduction targets; The main international strategies for poverty reduction - a summary assessment; Micro and macro evidence on the impact of undernourishment; Agricultural and rural non-farm growth. Agricultural trade, trade policies and the global food system: Introduction; Long-term trends in the pattern of global agricultural trade; The trade policy environment for agriculture; Towards free trade in agriculture - what is important from a 30-year perspective?; Beyond the traditional trade agenda: emerging long-term trade policy issues; Summary and conclusions. Globalization in food and agriculture: Globalization as an ongoing process; The main features of globalization and the correlates of success; Some options to integrate developing countries better; Concluding remarks. Selected issues in agricultural technology: The scope of yield increases; Technologies in support of sustainable agriculture; Organic agriculture; Agricultural biotechnology; Directions for agricultural research. Agriculture and the environment - changing pressures, solutions and trade-offs: Introduction; Major trends and forces; Changing pressures on the environment; Current and emerging solutions; Physical and economic tra-offs; Concluding remarks. Climate change and agriculture - physical and human dimensions: Introduction; Agriculture as a moderator of climate change; Climate change impacts on agriculture; Implications of climate change for food security; Technological and policy options; Conclusions. Appendices: Countries and commodities; Summary methodology of the quantitative analysis and projections; Statistical tables.

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Biography

Jelle Bruinsma was educated at the Universities of Utrecht and Amsterdam in the Netherlands as mathematician and economist. After having worked at the Center for World Food Studies in Amsterdam, he joined FAO in the mid-70s, where he developed agricultural sector models. In the early 1980s he joined the Global Perspective Studies Unit at FAO to participate in all four global perspective food and agriculture studies that FAO produced the last two decades. At present he is Chief of the Unit.