The Predictability of Weather and Climate

About this book

The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. The Predictability of Weather and Climate brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper.

This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.

Contents

Preface

1. Predictability of weather and climate: from theory to practice T. N. Palmer
2. Predictability from a dynamical meteorology perspective B. Hoskins
3. Predictability - a problem partly solved E. N. Lorenz
4. The Liouville Equation and atmospheric predictability M. Ehrendorfer
5. Application of generalized stability theory to deterministic and statistical prediction P. J. Ioannou and B. F. Farrell
6. Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation T. M. Hamill
7. Ensemble forecasting and data assimilation: two problems with the same solution? E. Kalnay, B. Hunt, E. Ott and I. Szunyogh
8. Approximating optimal state estimation B. F. Farrell and P. J. Ioannou
9. Predictability past predictability present L. A. Smith
10. Predictability of coupled processes A. Timmermann and F.-F. Jin
11. Predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability D. E. Waliser
12. Predictability of seasonal climate variations: a pedagogical review J. Shukla and J. L. Kinter III
13. Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation M. Latif, H. Pohlmann and W. Park
14. On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales F. Molteni, F. Kucharski and S. Corti
15. Model error in weather and climate forecasting M. Allen, D. Frame, J. Kettleborough and D. Stainforth
16. Observations, assimilation and the improvement of global weather prediction - some results from operational forecasting and ERA-40 A. J. Simmons
17. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system R. Buizza
18. Limited-area ensemble forecasting: the COSMO-LEPS system S. Tibaldi, T. Paccagnella, C. Marsigli, A. Montani and F. Nerozzi
19. Operational seasonal prediction D. L. T. Anderson
20. Weather and seasonal climate forecasts using the superensemble approach T. N. Krishnamurti, T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, A. K. Mitra, W. T. Yun, L. Stefanova, B. P. Mackey, A. J. O'Shay and W. K. Dewar
21. Predictability and targeted observations A. Thorpe and G. N. Petersen
22. The attributes of forecast systems: a framework for the evaluation and calibration of weather forecasts Z. Toth, O. Talagrand and Y. Zhu
23. Predictability from a forecast provider's perspective K. Mylne
24. Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings? F. Lalaurette and G. van der Grijn
25. Predictability and economic value D. S. Richardson
26. A three-tier overlapping prediction scheme: tools for strategic and tactical decisions in the developing world P. J. Webster, T. Hopson, C. Hoyos, A. Subbiah, H.-R. Chang and R. Grossman
27. DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts R. Hagedorn, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and T. N. Palmer

Index

Customer Reviews

Biography

Tim N. Palmer is Head of the Probability Forecasting and Diagnostics Division at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Renate Hagedorn is the education officer for the ECMWF research department.