366 pages, illus, tables
This book is intended for epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists, and health-care professionals, real-time and predictive modeling of infectious disease is of growing importance. It provides a timely and comprehensive introduction to the modeling of infectious diseases in humans and animals, focusing on recent developments as well as more traditional approaches.
Matt Keeling and Pejman Rohani move from modeling with simple differential equations to more recent, complex models, where spatial structure, seasonal "forcing," or stochasticity influence the dynamics, and where computer simulation needs to be used to generate theory. In each of the eight chapters, they deal with a specific modeling approach or set of techniques designed to capture a particular biological factor. They illustrate the methodology used with examples from recent research literature on human and infectious disease modeling, showing how such techniques can be used in practice. Diseases considered include BSE, foot-and-mouth, HIV, measles, rubella, smallpox, and West Nile virus, among others.
Particular attention is given throughout the book to the development of practical models, useful both as predictive tools and as a means to understand fundamental epidemiological processes. To emphasize this approach, the last chapter is dedicated to modeling and understanding the control of diseases through vaccination, quarantine, or culling. It provides a comprehensive, practical introduction to infectious disease modeling. It builds from simple to complex predictive models. Models and methodology are fully supported by examples drawn from research literature. It contains practical models which aid students' understanding of fundamental epidemiological processes. For many of the models presented, the authors provide accompanying programs written in Java, C, Fortran, and MATLAB.
Matt Keeling and Pejman Rohani...have made important and original contributions to epidemiology...and are well qualified to deliver an authoritative, comprehensive and up-to-date review. [The authors] advocate...the use of mathematical models to help design disease-control programs. They recognize that modeling is a partnership between modelers and empiricists. For that reason, I hope that [readership] will extend beyond existing and new devotees of this challenging and exciting discipline. -- Mark Woolhouse, Nature This book represents a valuable step toward educating readers to have greater appreciation and understanding of the development of mathematical models in infectious diseases. -- Carol Y. Lin, Biometrics Book Reviews [T]he authors have created a well written and essential reference for epidemiologists, mathematicians and other scientists interested in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases. -- Michael Hohle, Biometrical Journal
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