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The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century: New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development

Series: Population and Sustainable Development Series Volume: 1

Edited By: Wolfgang Lutz, Warren C Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov

341 pages, Figs, tabs


Hardback | Dec 2004 | #143807 | ISBN: 1844070891
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NHBS Price: £99.99 $130/€114 approx
Paperback | Dec 2004 | #143806 | ISBN: 1844070999
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About this book

While the 20th century was the century of population growth with the world's population increasing from 1.6 to 6.1 billion, this book shows that this trend is set to end and that the 21st century will be the new century of population ageing. This first volume in the Population and Sustainable Development Series examines the impacts of the end of population growth and the beginning of this new demographic.

'This book makes several important contributions to rigorous thinking about population dynamics in the 21st century.' Jeffrey D Sachs, Director, Earth Institute, Columbia University and Special Advisor to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan 'A valuable synthesis of the methodological innovations applied with remarkable creativity to real and important problems.' Joel E. Cohen, Head, Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University and Columbia University 'It makes for a highly stimulating and challenging read.' Journal of Peace Research 'Provide(s) a new framework for understanding the underlying unity between mortality and fertility rates.' The Futurist 'Technical studies claiming methodological advances' FUTURE SURVEY, May 2004


The end of world population growth; applications of probabilistic populations forecasting; future human capital - population projections by level of education; literate life expectancy - charting the progress in human development; interactions between population, environment, development and agriculture in Africa - a case study on Ethiopia; interactions between education and HIV - demographic examples from Botswana; China's future urban and rural population by level of education; population, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change; conceptualizing population in sustainable development - from "population stabilization" to "population balance".

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Wolfgang Lutz is leader of the Population at the International Institute for Applied Systems (IIASA) and director of the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences. Warren C Sanderson is a professor in the Departments of Economics and History at the State University of New York at Stony Brook and is co-chair of the Department of Economics there. Sergei Scherbov is a senior scientist at the Vienna Institute of Demography of Austrian Academy of Sciences and a senior research scholar at IIASA.

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