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Plant disease epidemics, caused by established and invasive pathogen species, continue to impact a world increasingly concerned with the quantity and quality of its primary food supply. The Study of Plant Disease Epidemics is a comprehensive manual that introduces readers to the essential principles and concepts of plant disease epidemiology. This useful reference and textbook provides a detailed exposition on how to describe, compare, analyze, and predict epidemics of plant disease for the ultimate purposes of developing and testing control strategies and tactics.
The authors have synthesized the research advances from the last four decades, with a special emphasis on research done in the last 15 years, to produce a useful framework for:
- Measuring plant disease
- Quantifying and modeling disease development in time and space
- Quantifying patterns of disease and sampling for disease in populations
- Determining decision thresholds for control interventions
- Characterizing the relationship between disease development and crop loss
This bestselling reference introduces a coherent theory of disease development in plant host populations over time and space, coupled with detailed explanations of the components of diseases in crops and forests. This theory demonstrates how different levels of mathematical complexity can lead to unifying principles of disease invasion, persistence, and rates of temporal increase and disease expansion from foci. In addition, The Study of Plant Disease Epidemics shows how disease control strategies are intricately related to fundamental population-biology parameters.
The information on modeling and statistical analysis provides the needed tools and procedures for researchers to help them properly measure and analyze collected epidemiological data and maximize its value. The methods and principles described throughout The Study of Plant Disease Epidemics explain how to translate this valuable data and utilize it to make informed disease management decisions.
The Study of Plant Disease Epidemics is the highly anticipated original work by three of the leading plant disease epidemiologists of the last quarter century. This manual is an essential tool intended for graduate students, researchers, and teachers of plant pathology, as well as crop consultants and those in disease management positions. It will be an excellent teaching tool for courses in Plant Disease Epidemiology, Plant Disease Management, Invasive Species Risk Assessment, and Plant Pathogen Ecology.
Chapter 1: Introduction
Plant Disease Epidemics
Some Concepts
Some Historical Developments
Prelude to the Rest of the Book
Possible Course Outlines
Suggested Readings
Chapter 2: Measuring Plant Diseases
Introduction
Plant Disease Intensity
Measurement Levels and Random Variables
Assessing Disease Intensity
Reliability, Accuracy, Agreement
Attributes and Properties of the Crop
Conclusion and Prelude to Following Chapters
Suggested Readings
Chapter 3: Introduction to Modeling in Epidemiology
Introduction
Models
Methods of Model Development
Fitting of Linear Models to Data
Fitting of Nonlinear Models to Data
Applications
Maximum Likelihood
Discussions and Prelude to Later Chapters
Suggested Readings
Chapter 4: Temporal Analysis I: Quantifying and Comparing Epidemics
Introduction
General Concepts
How Does an Epidemic Occur?
Models
Control
Model Fitting
Comparing Disease Progress Curves
Models with Maximum Disease Intensity as a Parameter
Time-Varying Rate Term
Concluding Comments and Prelude to Advanced Topics
Suggested Readings
Chapter 5: Temporal Analysis II: The Components of Disease
Introductions
Disease Progress Models with Fixed Density
Chapter 6: Temporal Analysis III: Advanced Topics
Introduction
Models with Crop Growth
The Role of Primary Infections
Epidemics with Vector Transmission
Transitional Dynamics and Other Complexities
Parameter Estimation
Suggested Readings
Chapter 7: Spatial Aspects of Epidemics – I: Pathogen Dispersal and Disease Gradients
Introduction
Dispersal Gradients, Disease Gradients, and Disease Spread
Models
Model Fitting
Disease Gradients – Correcting for Maximum Intensity
Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Disease Spread
Disease Management
Concluding Comments and a Prelude to the Following Chapters
Selected Readings
Chapter 8: Spatial Aspects of Epidemics – II: A Theory of Spatio-Temporal Disease Dynamics
Introduction
Models for Spatial Populations Expansion
Some Extensions
An Application
Concluding Remarks
Selected Readings
Chapter 9: Spatial Aspects of Epidemics – III: Patterns of Plant Disease
Why We Look at Spatial Patterns
Terminology
Spatial Plant Disease Data
Analysis of Sparsely-Sampled Incidence Data
Analysis of Sparsely-Sampled Count Data
Relationships between Distributions
Spatial Hierarchies
Sparsely-Sampled Disease Severity Data
Analysis of Intensively-Mapped Disease Data
Spatial patterns and Dispersal Functions
Distance-Based Methods
Conclusions
Suggested Readings
Chapter 10: Estimating Plant Disease by Sampling
Why We Sample of Epidemiological Data
Sampling Preliminaries
Simple Random Sampling for Disease Incidence Data
Simple Random Sampling for Count Data
Cluster Sampling for Disease Incidence Data
Regression Analysis of Disease Incidence Data
Regression Analysis of Count Data
Group Testing with Incidence Data
Binomial Sampling for Count Data
Estimation of Disease Severity
Inverse Sampling for Disease Incidence
Sequential Estimation of Disease
Conclusions
Suggested Readings
Chapter 11: Decision-Making in the Practice of Plant Disease Management
Decision-Making Disease Management
Acceptance Sampling Preliminaries
Designing a Sampling Plan with a Specified Curve
Zero Acceptance Number Sampling Plans
Sequential Sampling for Classification
Risk Algorithms as a Basis for Decisions-Making
Predicting the Need for Treatment
Conclusion
Suggested Readings
Chapter 12: Epidemics and Crop Yield
Introductions
Definitions and Concepts
Data and Relationships
Modeling Yield in Relation to Disease
An Example Analysis
Mechanistic Approaches to Crop Loss Assessment
Spatial Heterogeneity
Discussion and Conclusions
Suggested Readings
References
Index
"Without any question this is an excellent treatise concerning such an important subject as evaluation of occurrence of plant pathogens and estimation of economic losses they cause in crop production. The authors and the APS Press merit congratulations on providing the researchers and practitioners such an excellent treatise concerning plant protection."
– Journal of Plant Protection Research
"The Study of Plant Disease Epidemics clearly and cohesively synthesises many aspects of plant disease epidemiology from the principles of disease intensity assessment to the various modeling approaches to crop loss assessment. Its tone is instructional and would be of benefit to plant pathologists wishing to augment their skills in plant disease epidemiology, or for teachers of graduate/advanced level classes in plant disease epidemiology, biological systems modeling, and disease management."
– Australasian Plant Pathology
"This is an excellent book suitable for specialists in plant disease epidemics at every level. Nematologists would benefit form knowing how plant pathologists approach the study of disease epidemics and how their approach could also be used in nematology especially with nematodes that multiply continuously and have a rather short life cycle."
– Nematologia Mediterranea
" [...] its completeness and accessibility make it very well suited as a reference book. It is a great companion to understanding the dense and abundant epidemiology literature. Probably every plant pathologist should have this text, and any mycologist who wants to keep a food in the world of plant epidemiology would find this book quite useful."
– Inoculum
" [...] provides a substantial amount of information [...] well-written and readable, quite pleasing considering the complexity of the subject [...] should be available in all college, university, research laboratories and institutional libraries where there are courses and research in plant pathology."
– Fungal Diversity
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