About this book
Global warming is arguably the defining scientific issue of modern times, but it is not widely appreciated that the foundations of our understanding are almost two centuries old. The sensitivity of climate to changes in atmospheric CO2 was first estimated about one century ago, and the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration was discovered half a century ago. The fundamentals of the science underlying the forecast for human-induced climate change were being published and debated long before the issue rose to public prominence in the last few decades.
The Warming Papers is a compendium of the classic scientific papers that constitute the foundation of the global warming forecast. The paper trail spans over 175 years, ranging from Fourier and Arrhenius in the 19th Century to Manabe and Hansen in modern times. Archer and Pierrehumbert provide introductions and commentary which places the papers in their context and provide students with tools to develop and extend their understanding of the subject. This book captures the excitement of fresh discovery, and reinforces the principles of climate science for modern scientists, historians, and their students.
Preface Part 1 Climate Physics The Greenhouse Effect On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier (1824) Wagging the Dog On the Absorption and radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction John Tyndall (1861) By the Light of the Silvery Moon On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature on the Ground Svante Arrhenius (1896) Radiative Transfer The Influence of the 15mu Carban-Dioxide Band on the Atmospheric Infra-red Cooling Rate G. N. Plaas (1956) The Balance of Energy Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity Syukuro Manabe and Richard T. Wetherald (1967) The Effect of Solar Radiation Variations on the Climate of the Earth M. I. Budyko (1968) A Global Climatic Model Based on the Energy Balance of the Earth-Atmosphere System William D. Sellers (1968) The Birth of the General Circulation Model The Effects of Doubling the CO2 Concentration on the Climate of a General Circulation Model Syukuro Manabe and Richard T. Wetherald (1975) Climate Sensitivity: Analysis of Feedback Mechanisms J. Hansen, I. Fung, A. Lacis, J. Lerner, D. Rind, R. Ruedy, G. Russell and P. Stone, (1984) Aerosols Climate Responnse to Increasing Levels of Greenhouse Gases and Sulphate Aerosols J. F. B. Mitchell, T. C. Johns, J. M. Gregory and S. F. B. Tett (1995) Ocean Heat and Committed Warming Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications James Hansen, Larissa Nazarenko, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato, Josh Willis, Anthony Del Genio, Dorothy Koch, Andrew Lacis, Ken Lo, Surabi Menon, Tica Novakov, Judith Periwitz, Gary Russell, Gavin A. Schmidt and Nicholas Tausnev (2005) Taking Earth's Temperature Global Temperature Variations Between 1861 and 1984 P. D. Jones, T. M. L. Wigley and P. B. Wright (1986) Contribution to Stratospheric Cooling to Satellite-Inferred Troposphoric Temperature Trends Qiang Fu, Celeste M. Johanson, Stephen G. Warren and Dian J. Seidel (2004) Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertanties, and Limitations Michael E. Mann, Raymond Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes (1999) Ice Sheets and Sea Level Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow H. Jay Zwally, Waleed Abdalati, Tom Herring, Kristine Larson, Jack Saba and Konrad Steffen (2002) The Public Statement Man-Made Carbon Dioxide and the 'Greenhouse' Effect J. S. Sawyer (1972) Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment Jule G. Charney, Akio Arakawa, D. James Baker, Bert Bolin, Robert E. Dickinson, Richard M. Goody, Cecil E. Leith, Henry M. Stommel and Carl I. Wunsch (1979) PART 2 Carbon Cycle The Sky is Rising The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and its Influence on Temperature G. S. Callendar (1938) Denial and Acceptance Carbon Dioxide Exchange Between Atmosphere and Ocean and the Question of an Increase of Atmospheric CO2 During the Past Decades Roger Revelle and Hans E. Suess (1957) Distribution of Matter in the Sea and Atmosphere: Changes in the Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmoshere and Sea due to Fossil Fuel Combustion Bert Bolin and Erik Eriksson (1958) Bookends The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmoshpere C. D. Keeling (1960) Is Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel Changing Man's Environment? Charles D. Keeling (1970) One if by Land Changes of Land Biota and Their Importance for the Carbon Cycle Bert Bolin (1977) Observational Constraints on the Global Atmospheric CO2 Budget Pieter P. Tans, Inez Y. Fung and Taro Takahashi (1990) Acceleration of Global Warming due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model Peter M. Cox, Richard A. Betts, Chris D. Jones, Steven A. Spall and Ian J. Totterdell (2000) Two if by Sea Neutralization of Fossil Fuel CO2 by Marine Calcium Carbonate W. S. Broecker and T. Takahashi (1977) Effects of Fuel and Forest Conservation on Future Levels of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide James C. G. Walker and James F. Kasting (1992) Abrupt Deep-Seas Warming, Palaeoceanographic Changes and Benthic Extinctions at the End of the Palaeocene J. P. Kennett and L. D. Stott (1991) Ocean pH Anthropogenic Carbon and Ocean pH Ken Caldeira and Michael E. Wickett (2003) Reduced Calcification of Marine Plankton in Response to Increased Atmospheric CO2Ulf Riebesell, Ingrid Zondervan, Bjorn Rost, Phillippe D. Tortell, Richard E. Zeebe and Francois M. M. Morel (2000) Tiny Bubbles Evidence From Polar Ice Cores for the Increase in Atmospheric CO2 in the Past Two Centuries A Neftel, E. Moor, H. Oeschger and B. Stauffer (1985) Vostok Ice Core Provides 160,000-Year record of Atmospheric CO2J. M. Barnola, D. Raynaud, Y. S. Korotkevich and C. Lorius (1987) PART 3 Solutions Energy Implications of Future Stabilization of Atmosphere CO2 Content Martin I. Hoffert, Ken Caldeira, Atul K. Jain, Erik F. Haites, L. D. Danny Harvey, Seth D. Potter, Michael E. Schlesinger, Stephen H. Schneider, Robert G. Watts, Tom M. L. Wigley and Donald J. Wuebbles (1998) Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 years with Current Technologies S. Pacala and R. Socolow (2004) Warming Caused by Cumulative Carbon Emissions Towards the Trillionth Tonne Myles R. Allen, David J. Frame, Chris Huntingford, Chris D. Jones, Jason A. Lowe, Malte Meinshausen and Nicolai Meinshausen (2009) Index
David Archer is a Professor in Geophysical Sciences, and a fellow of the American Geophysical Union. His research pertains to the global carbon cycle and its relation to Earth's climate in the past and the future. Archer is the author of The Long Thaw: How humans are changing the next 100,000 years of Earth's climate (Princeton University Press, 2008), an undergraduate text book called Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast (Blackwell, 2006), and a summary guide to the IPCC Fourth Scientific Assessment Report called The Climate Crisis (Cambridge University Press, 2009). Ray Pierrehumbert is the Louis Block Professor in Geophysical Sciences, a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union, and was named Chevalier de l'Ordre des Palmes Academiques by the Republic of France. Pierrehumbert studies the physics of climate, especially regarding the long-term evolution of the climates of Earth, Mars.Venus, Titan and extrasolar planets. Pierrehumbert was an author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report (1997-2001), and a member of the National Research Council's Panel on Abrupt Climate Change and its Societal Impacts (2000-2001), and is currently serving on the National Research Council Board on Atmospheric Science and Climate, and the National Research Council Panel on CO2 Stabilization Targets.