Application of Uncertainty Analysis to Ecological Risks of Pesticides

About this book

This book presents specific methods leading to probabilistic decisions concerning the registration and application of pesticides and includes case studies illustrating the application of statistical methods.

The authors discuss Bayesian inference, first-order error analysis, first-order (non-hierarchical) Monte Carlo methods, second-order Bayesian and Monte Carlo methods, interval analysis, and probability bounds analysis. They then examine how these methods can be used in assessments for other environmental stressors and contaminants.

Contents

Introduction, Objectives and Key issues. Problem Formulation for Probabilistic Assessments. Bayesian Methods. Selecting Statistical Distributions. Propagating Uncertainty in Non-Hierarchical Models. Propagating Uncertainty in Hierarchical Models. Bounding Techniques. How to Detect and Avoid Misleading Results. Interpreting and Using PRA Results in Environmental Decision-Making. Workshop Conclusions and Findings. Glossary.

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Biography

The Cadmus Group Central Science Laboratory, Defra Sand Hutton, York, UK