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About this book
About this book
This book develops thought-provoking applications which emphasize the value of modelling as a learning tool. Beginning with basic descriptive equations, matrix representations and consumer-resources interactions, the book then goes on to explore applications in simulation, scenarios, harvesting, population viability, metapopulation dynamics, disease outbreaks, vegetation stage and state dynamics, habitat suitability assessment, and model selection statistics. Detailed instructions are given on how to construct spreadsheet models, and programmes are written in True BASIC which forms a readily understandable foundation language. Throughout the book a wide range of examples are used relating to birds, fish, plants and large African mammals.
An accompanying CD provides models as well as a trial version of the True BASIC programming language.
Preface 1 Introduction: why learn modeling?1.1 Introduction1.2 Structure of the book1.3 Supporting computer softwareRecommended supporting readingSupporting file on the CD 2 A starting problem: conservation of the dodo 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Conservation of the dodo 3 Descriptive models: choosing an equation 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Dynamic equations 3.3 Geometric and exponential growth 3.4 Adding a population ceiling 3.5 Basic density-dependent models 3.6 Curvilinear density dependence 3.7 Delayed density dependence 3.8 Depensation or Allee effect 3.9 Incorporating environmental variability3.10 Overview Recommended supporting reading Programs on the accompanying CD Exercises 4 Structured population models: age, size, or stage 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Age-structured models4.3 Stage-structured models 4.4 Projection versus prediction 4.5 Overview Recommended supporting reading Programs on the accompanying CD Exercises 5 Consumer - resource models: population interactions 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Coupling population equations 5.3 Simple interactive model 5.4 Incorporating competitive interference 5.5 Ratio-dependent intake response and time frames 5.6 Accommodating environmental variability 5.7 Overview Recommended supporting reading Programs on the accompanying CD Exercises 6 Simulation models: assessing understanding 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Adding density dependence to an age-structured model 6.3 Aspecific example: the kudu model 6.4 Simplification for management 6.5 Generalizing the model for other species 6.6 Overview Recommended supporting reading Programs on the accompanying CD Exercises 7 Harvesting models: adaptive management 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Principles of "maximum sustained yield" 7.3 Surplus production model accommodating environmental variability 7.4 Stock-recruitment model 7.5 Policies for setting the harvest quota 7.6 Adaptive management responses 7.7 Stock-recruitment models for fish populations 7.8 Overview Recommended supporting reading Programs on the accompanying CD Exercises8 Population viability models: risk analysis 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Demographic stochasticity 8.3 Environmental variability and catastrophes 8.4 Genetic stochasticity 8.5 Population viability models 8.6 Overview Recommended supporting reading Programs on the accompanying CD Exercises 9 Metapopulation models: spreading the risk 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Basic patch incidence model 9.3 Correlated migration and extinction 9.4 Variable patch size and spacing 9.5 Source and sink populations 9.6 Mainland - island habitats 9.7 Examples of vertebrate metapopulations 9.8 Overview Recommended supporting reading Exercises 10 Modeling infectious diseases: outbreak dynamics 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Basic infection model 10.3 Cyclic outbreak dynamics: measles 10.4 Slowly spreading sexually transmitted disease: HIV - AIDS 10.5 Controlling the spread of wildlife diseases 10.6 Overview Recommended supporting reading Exercises 11 Scenario models: exploring options 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Background situation 11.3 Theoretical concepts 11.4 Modeling the white rhino - grassland system 11.5 Exploring management options 11.6 Overview Recommended supporting reading Program on the accompanying CD Exercises12 Vegetation models: biomass to gap dynamics 12.1 Introduction 12.2 Seasonal biomass dynamics of vegetation supporting herbivores 12.3 Size-structured dynamics of a tree population 12.4 Gap dynamics model 12.5 Overview Recommended supporting reading Programs on the accompanying CD Exercises 13 State transition models: habitat patch dynamics 13.1 Introduction 13.2 Vegetation successional dynamics 13.3 Managing savanna vegetation for livestock 13.4 Spatially explicit grid model 13.5 Overview Recommended supporting reading Programs on the accompanying CD Exercises 14 Habitat suitability models: adaptive behavior 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Shifting habitat use by overwintering geese 14.3 Habitat suitability for a browsing antelope from vegetation composition 14.4 General principles 14.5 OverviewRecommended supporting reading Programs on the accompanying CD Exercises 15 Reconciling models with data: statistical diagnosis15.1 Introduction15.2 Model selection statistics 15.3 Diagnosing the causes of antelope population declines 15.4 Overview Recommended supporting reading Programs on the accompanying CD ExerciseAppendicesReferences Index
Norman Owen-Smith is Research Professor in African Ecology in the School of Animal, Plant, and Environmental Sciences at the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa. He teaches ecology at undergraduate and postgraduate levels, and is well-known internationally for his research into all aspects of wildlife ecology and bioresource conservation.